Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

(7:13) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 23 for -1 yards (26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.98 EP
63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model