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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 5-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model