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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

SD
30.8%
KC
69.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC defense: -0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SD 17
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SD

Brandon Flowers CB Out Knee
Dontrelle Inman WR Out Neck
Steve Johnson WR Out Groin
Corey Liuget DT Out Foot
Sean Lissemore DT Doubtful Shoulder
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Concussion
King Dunlap T Probable Ankle
Ladarius Green TE Probable Ankle
Chris Hairston T Probable Abdomen
Philip Rivers QB Probable Foot
Steve Williams CB Probable Concussion

KC

Husain Abdullah S Out Concussion
Mike Devito DE Out Concussion
Justin Houston LB Out Knee
De'Anthony Thomas WR Out Concussion
Jeff Allen G Questionable Ankle
Tamba Hali LB Probable Knee
Allen Bailey DE Probable Calf
Dustin Colquitt P Probable right Knee
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
Mitch Morse C Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 3
–
KC 10

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 02:00 TD KC (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 12-A.Wilson for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 00:07 FG KC (:07) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. SD 0 – KC 10
  • Q3 05:51 FG LAC (5:51) 2-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 3 – KC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:27) 5-M.Scifres punts 43 yards to KC 16, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-F.Hammond pushed ob at LAC 26 for 58 yards (5-M.Scifres). PENALTY on KC-20-S.Nelson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at KC 16.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (7:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming. PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at LAC 7.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:16) 5-M.Scifres punts 55 yards to KC 5, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-F.Hammond to KC 22 for 17 yards (97-J.Attaochu). FUMBLES (97-J.Attaochu), RECOVERED by LAC-47-M.Windt at KC 26. 47-M.Windt to KC 26 for no gain (57-D.Alexander). Penalty on KC-84-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (1:11) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 38%

    (7:24) 5-M.Scifres punts 38 yards to KC 4, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%

    (12:13) 5-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 95%

    (5:51) 2-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 17 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to LAC 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (11:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 17 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:38) 5-M.Scifres punts 42 yards to KC 23, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-F.Hammond pushed ob at KC 38 for 15 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (5:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 27 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 81-J.Herndon to KC 39 for 6 yards (21-S.Smith).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 46%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 85-A.Gates to KC 23 for 16 yards (29-E.Berry) [91-T.Hali].

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 86-V.Brown to KC 1 for 22 yards (27-T.Branch; 22-M.Peters).