Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(9:38) 5-M.Scifres punts 42 yards to KC 23, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-F.Hammond pushed ob at KC 38 for 15 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.48 EP
76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model