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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 38

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 27 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP