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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LAC 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming. PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at LAC 7.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model