Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 5-M.Scifres punts 55 yards to KC 5, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-F.Hammond to KC 22 for 17 yards (97-J.Attaochu). FUMBLES (97-J.Attaochu), RECOVERED by LAC-47-M.Windt at KC 26. 47-M.Windt to KC 26 for no gain (57-D.Alexander). Penalty on KC-84-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.56 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model