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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model