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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-C.Gresham. 81-K.Clay to BAL 23 for 12 yards (20-J.Lane).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.13 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP