Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to SEA: Jimmy Clausen (BAL) -0.455 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.143 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Jimmy Clausen in place of Matt Schaub)
- SEA offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- SEA defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- BAL offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
SEA
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:15 TD SEA (5:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – BAL 0
- Q2 13:42 FG BAL (13:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SEA 7 – BAL 3
- Q2 00:43 TD SEA (:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-D.Baldwin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-24-K.Arrington, Defensive Holding, declined. SEA 13 – BAL 3
- Q2 00:03 FG BAL (:03) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SEA 14 – BAL 6
- Q3 08:59 TD SEA (8:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – BAL 6
- Q4 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – BAL 6
- Q4 09:01 TD SEA (9:01) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Russell Wilson ties Seattle single game record with fifth touchdown pass of game. SEA 34 – BAL 6
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 50%
(11:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 58%
(2:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to SEA 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-83-D.Brown.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:22) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 47 yards to BAL 48, Center-49-C.Gresham. 81-K.Clay to SEA 42 for 10 yards (57-M.Morgan).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 96%
(13:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%
(4:04) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 61%
(1:13) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-C.Gresham. 81-K.Clay to BAL 23 for 12 yards (20-J.Lane).
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Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 57%
(5:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(14:06) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for no gain (54-Z.Orr).
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Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(12:14) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 63 yards to BAL 10, Center-49-C.Gresham. 81-K.Clay pushed ob at BAL 34 for 24 yards (91-C.Marsh).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 10 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%
(4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Clausen pass incomplete short middle to 83-D.Brown [72-M.Bennett].