4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(5:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP