Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Seattle Seahawks 28

(14:06) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for no gain (54-Z.Orr).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.58 EP
56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model