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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.56 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model