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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 63 yards to BAL 10, Center-49-C.Gresham. 81-K.Clay pushed ob at BAL 34 for 24 yards (91-C.Marsh).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.07 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model