4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to SEA 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-83-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.14 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP