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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 42

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.38 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model