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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2015-12-13 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

WAS
33.1%
CHI
66.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 18
–
CHI 24
Projected margin: CHI by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

WAS

Jeron Johnson S Out Hamstring
Chris Thompson RB Out Shoulder
Perry Riley LB Out Foot
Derek Carrier TE Questionable Ankle
Jason Hatcher DE Questionable Neck
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Knee
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Shoulder
Will Compton LB Probable Shoulder
Quinton Dunbar CB Probable Finger
Deshazor Everett CB Probable Hamstring
DeAngelo Hall CB Probable Toe
Dashon Goldson S Probable Knee, Hamstring

CHI

Marquess Wilson WR Out Foot
Pernell McPhee LB Doubtful Knee
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Quadricep
Sam Acho LB Questionable Shoulder
Zach Miller TE Questionable Ribs
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Ankle
Antrel Rolle S Questionable Knee
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Knee
Shea McClellin LB Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 24
–
CHI 21

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:39 TD WAS (6:39) 68-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 46-A.Morris left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 14:23 TD WAS (14:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – CHI 0
  • Q2 00:24 TD CHI (:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left to 17-A.Jeffery for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-41-W.Blackmon, Defensive Holding, declined. WAS 14 – CHI 6
  • Q3 08:05 TD WAS (8:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – CHI 7
  • Q3 03:47 TD CHI (3:47) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 86-Z.Miller for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 21 – CHI 13
  • Q3 01:28 TD CHI (1:28) (Shotgun) 22-M.Forte right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 21 – CHI 20
  • Q4 14:12 FG WAS (14:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 24 – CHI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:50) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to WAS 12, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 39 for 27 yards (36-S.Martin). PENALTY on WAS-89-D.Carrier, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 13.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:34) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to CHI 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 18 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 39%

    (3:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:27) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 64 yards to CHI 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-E.Royal to CHI 42 for 16 yards (57-N.Sundberg).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to WAS 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 38 for 6 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%

    (14:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to WAS 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 44%

    (9:25) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to CHI 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%

    (6:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to WAS 8, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 42%

    (2:19) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 66%

    (1:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.