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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 90

Washington Commanders 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 64 yards to CHI 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-E.Royal to CHI 42 for 16 yards (57-N.Sundberg).

The Three Options

GO -3.65 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.09 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 90, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model