Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 81

Chicago Bears 7 – Washington Commanders 14

(13:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to WAS 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 38 for 6 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model