4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 32

Chicago Bears 21 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model