Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 64

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to WAS 12, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 39 for 27 yards (36-S.Martin). PENALTY on WAS-89-D.Carrier, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model