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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP