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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 20:30 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

ARI
65.9%
PHI
34.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.033 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.288 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ARI on 3 more days rest than PHI

Predicted Final Score

ARI 26
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: ARI by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ARI

Cory Redding DT Doubtful Ankle
Rashad Johnson S Questionable Ankle
Lyle Sendlein C Questionable Knee
Andre Ellington RB Questionable Toe
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Knee
Patrick Peterson CB Questionable Ankle
Jerraud Powers CB Questionable Calf
Frostee Rucker DT Questionable Ankle
Larry Fitzgerald WR Probable Ankle
Brittan Golden WR Probable Concussion
Sean Weatherspoon LB Probable Illness

PHI

Allen Barbre G Probable Calf
Sam Bradford QB Probable left Shoulder
Vinny Curry DE Probable Illness
Lane Johnson T Probable Shoulder
Bennie Logan DT Probable Knee
Jordan Matthews WR Probable Back
Byron Maxwell CB Probable Ankle
Eric Rowe CB Probable Ankle
Marcus Smith LB Probable Hamstring
Cedric Thornton DE Probable Ankle
Matt Tobin G Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 40
–
PHI 17

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:47 TD ARI (10:47) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 06:04 FG PHI (6:04) 6-C.Sturgis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. ARI 7 – PHI 3
  • Q2 14:12 FG ARI (14:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 10 – PHI 3
  • Q2 08:32 TD PHI (8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – PHI 9
  • Q2 04:12 TD ARI (4:12) 31-D.Johnson right end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – PHI 10
  • Q3 09:53 TD ARI (9:53) 31-D.Johnson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – PHI 10
  • Q3 00:47 TD ARI (:47) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 12-Jo.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox]. ARI 29 – PHI 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD ARI (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right intended for 24-R.Mathews INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Bucannon at PHI 39. 20-D.Bucannon for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 36 – PHI 10
  • Q4 14:43 TD PHI (14:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass deep right to 81-J.Matthews for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Okafor]. ARI 37 – PHI 16
  • Q4 02:59 FG ARI (2:59) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 40 – PHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 91%

    (6:04) 6-C.Sturgis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (14:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:24) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:30) 2-D.Butler punts 35 yards to PHI 47, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-82-M.Leach.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 21%

    (6:20) 2-D.Butler punts 38 yards to PHI 15, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:34) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 33 for 6 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by ARI-87-T.Niklas at ARI 33. 87-T.Niklas to ARI 33 for no gain (87-B.Celek).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (:50) 24-R.Mathews right tackle to ARI 8 for no gain (20-D.Bucannon).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:08) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:00) 2-D.Butler punts 45 yards to PHI 10, Center-82-M.Leach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 16 for 6 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:22) 2-D.Butler punts 38 yards to PHI 29, Center-82-M.Leach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 35 for 6 yards (87-T.Niklas).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 75%

    (8:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete short middle to 81-J.Matthews.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (2:59) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.