Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(10:30) 2-D.Butler punts 35 yards to PHI 47, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-82-M.Leach.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.17 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model