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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model