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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 2-D.Butler punts 45 yards to PHI 10, Center-82-M.Leach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 16 for 6 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model