Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 37 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(10:22) 2-D.Butler punts 38 yards to PHI 29, Center-82-M.Leach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 35 for 6 yards (87-T.Niklas).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.16 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model