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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 37 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.81 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model