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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 18

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 6-C.Sturgis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.60 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model