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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 86

Buffalo Bills 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to WAS 44, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-58-R.Johnson. BUF-26-A.Dixon was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model