4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

BUF
48.4%
WAS
51.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.096 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.150 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

BUF

Nigel Bradham LB Out Ankle
Charles Clay TE Out Back
Seantrel Henderson T Out Illness
Ron Brooks CB Out Concussion
Bacarri Rambo S Questionable Knee
Mario Williams DE Questionable Illness
Karlos Williams RB Questionable Shoulder
Jerome Felton RB Probable Back
Preston Brown LB Probable Hamstring
John Miller G Probable Ankle
Robert Woods WR Probable Hip

WAS

Andre Roberts WR Out Knee
Perry Riley LB Out Foot
Jason Hatcher DE Questionable Neck
Jeron Johnson S Questionable Hamstring
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Shoulder
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Shoulder
Will Compton LB Probable Shoulder
Dashon Goldson S Probable Wrist
Ryan Grant WR Probable Abdomen
DeAngelo Hall CB Probable Toe
Trent Williams T Probable Foot
DeSean Jackson WR Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 25
–
WAS 35

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 TD WAS (9:28) 68-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 86-J.Reed for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 12:54 TD WAS (12:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 08:52 TD WAS (8:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 86-J.Reed for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – WAS 20
  • Q3 09:04 FG BUF (9:04) 2-D.Carpenter 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – WAS 21
  • Q3 08:53 TD WAS (8:53) 68-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 11-D.Jackson for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – WAS 27
  • Q3 06:59 TD BUF (6:59) 35-M.Gillislee left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – WAS 28
  • Q3 03:56 TD BUF (3:56) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – WAS 28
  • Q4 11:21 TD WAS (11:21) 68-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 88-P.Garcon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – WAS 34
  • Q4 01:34 TD BUF (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – WAS 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 49%

    (2:55) 6-C.Schmidt punts 17 yards to WAS 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 29 for 5 yards (65-G.Sanborn).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:44) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to WAS 44, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-58-R.Johnson. BUF-26-A.Dixon was injured during the play.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:09) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to BUF 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 38, RECOVERED by BUF-20-C.Graham at BUF 43. 20-C.Graham to BUF 43 for no gain (14-R.Grant).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 52%

    (5:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to WAS 32 for 8 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (1:38) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Watkins.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

    (9:04) 2-D.Carpenter 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:33) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to BUF 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at BUF 30 for 5 yards (51-W.Compton). PENALTY on BUF-27-D.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 25.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 41%

    (8:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Watkins [38-D.Goldson]. BUF-76-J.Miller was injured during the play.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 34%

    (6:24) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to BUF 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:22) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to WAS 40, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:19) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.