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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 1
Buffalo Bills 0 – Washington Commanders 21
What Actually Happened
(1:38) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Watkins.
The Three Options
GO
+3.14 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 1, worth -0.90 EP
KICK
+1.45 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT
-0.95 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
