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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 14

Buffalo Bills 0 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 2-D.Carpenter 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.28 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model