Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 72

Washington Commanders 28 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to BUF 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-M.Thigpen pushed ob at BUF 30 for 5 yards (51-W.Compton). PENALTY on BUF-27-D.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.24 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model