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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 17 – Washington Commanders 35

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Watkins [38-D.Goldson]. BUF-76-J.Miller was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model