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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 47

Washington Commanders 35 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to BUF 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.42 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP