Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 57

Washington Commanders 35 – Buffalo Bills 17

(4:19) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.03 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model