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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 6-C.Schmidt punts 17 yards to WAS 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 29 for 5 yards (65-G.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model