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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to CIN 33, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-B.Tate to CIN 31 for -2 yards (86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.15 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model