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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CIN
61.1%
SF
38.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Blaine Gabbert (SF) -0.061 vs A.J. McCarron (CIN) -0.090 EPA/dropback (CIN starting A.J. McCarron in place of Andy Dalton)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
SF 19
Projected margin: CIN by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CIN

Andy Dalton QB Out right Thumb
Tyler Eifert TE Out Concussion
Jake Fisher T Out Concussion
George Iloka S Out Groin
Russell Bodine C Probable Finger
Vontaze Burfict LB Probable Knee
Leon Hall CB Probable Back
Michael Johnson DE Probable Back
Adam Jones CB Probable Foot
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Probable Knee
Andrew Whitworth T Probable Knee

SF

Alex Boone G Out Knee
Michael Wilhoite LB Out Ankle
Tramaine Brock CB Questionable Hamstring
Aaron Lynch LB Questionable Concussion
Torrey Smith WR Questionable Back
Arik Armstead DT Probable Shoulder
Anquan Boldin WR Probable Hamstring
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Ahmad Brooks LB Probable Shoulder
Marcus Cromartie CB Probable Hip
Quinton Dial DT Probable Shoulder
Kendall Gaskins RB Probable Concussion
Eli Harold LB Probable Shoulder
Marcus Martin C Probable Ankle
Vance McDonald TE Probable Concussion
Erik Pears T Probable Knee
Mike Purcell DT Probable Shoulder
Eric Reid S Probable Shoulder
Jerome Simpson WR Probable Finger
Joe Staley T Probable Knee
Jaquiski Tartt S Probable Ankle
Andrew Tiller G Probable Knee
Jimmie Ward S Probable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 24
–
SF 14

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:18 TD CIN (5:18) 32-J.Hill up the middle to SF 1 for no gain (53-N.Bowman, 95-C.Carradine). Cincinnati challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 32-J.Hill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 01:19 TD CIN (1:19) 70-C.Ogbuehi and 73-E.Winston reported in as eligible. 32-J.Hill left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – SF 0
  • Q2 00:58 TD CIN (:58) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass deep left to 81-T.Kroft for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – SF 0
  • Q3 08:45 FG CIN (8:45) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 24 – SF 0
  • Q3 03:18 TD SF (3:18) 49-B.Miller up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-59-E.Lamur, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. CIN 24 – SF 6
  • Q4 02:23 TD SF (2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 81-A.Boldin for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in end zone. 0-yds YAC CIN 24 – SF 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to CIN 33, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-B.Tate to CIN 31 for -2 yards (86-K.Nelson).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:37) 10-K.Huber punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback. PENALTY on SF-54-R.Armstrong, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to CIN 22, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%

    (6:29) 25-G.Bernard left guard to SF 28 for -1 yards (53-N.Bowman).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (4:29) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CIN 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-B.Tate to CIN 19 for -3 yards (47-M.Cromartie).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:51) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to SF 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 23 for -2 yards (46-C.Harris).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 15%

    (15:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CIN 11, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:29) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to SF 38, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 43 for 5 yards (46-C.Harris).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 28%

    (10:01) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:30) 5-B.Pinion punts 18 yards to SF 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (8:45) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:30) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CIN 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 24-A.Jones to CIN 26 for 4 yards (54-R.Armstrong). SF-36-D.Johnson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CIN 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:05) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to SF 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 41 for 7 yards (33-R.Burkhead).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 68%

    (10:16) 49-B.Miller left guard to CIN 29 for 2 yards (50-A.Hawk).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 19 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 84%

    (8:12) 9-P.Dawson 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Dunlap), Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:21) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SF 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 28 for 6 yards (28-T.Hill).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 35%

    (4:47) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 11-Q.Patton to CIN 34 for 9 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick). Caught at CIN 34. 1-yd YAC

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:36) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to SF 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 40 for 17 yards (59-E.Lamur).