Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(3:30) 5-B.Pinion punts 18 yards to SF 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model