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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP