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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CIN 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 24-A.Jones to CIN 26 for 4 yards (54-R.Armstrong). SF-36-D.Johnson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model