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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CIN 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model