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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 23

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 9-P.Dawson 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Dunlap), Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model