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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(4:47) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 11-Q.Patton to CIN 34 for 9 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick). Caught at CIN 34. 1-yd YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.80 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model