Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(2:51) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to SF 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 23 for -2 yards (46-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model