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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. Penalty on DEN-90-A.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-60-G.Warren, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model