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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DEN
29.6%
PIT
70.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.255 vs Brock Osweiler (DEN) -0.004 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
PIT 27
Projected margin: PIT by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DEN

Omar Bolden S Out Hamstring
Peyton Manning QB Out Foot
Lerentee McCray LB Out Hamstring
T.J. Ward S Out Ankle
Darian Stewart S Questionable Hamstring
C.J. Anderson RB Questionable Ankle
Andre Caldwell WR Questionable Quadricep
Todd Davis LB Questionable Shoulder
Bennie Fowler WR Questionable Ankle
Evan Mathis G Questionable Ankle
David Bruton S Probable Knee
Owen Daniels TE Probable Knee
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Ronnie Hillman RB Probable Foot
Malik Jackson DE Probable Not Injury Related
Cody Latimer WR Probable Hamstring
Emmanuel Sanders WR Probable Finger
Demaryius Thomas WR Probable Not Injury Related
Danny Trevathan LB Probable Concussion
Vance Walker DE Probable Shoulder
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Back
Sylvester Williams DT Probable Ankle

PIT

Will Allen S Probable Not Injury Related
Bud Dupree LB Probable Back
William Gay CB Probable Not Injury Related
James Harrison LB Probable Not Injury Related
Heath Miller TE Probable Rib
Michael Mitchell S Probable Shoulder
Ryan Shazier LB Probable Knee
Matt Spaeth TE Probable Knee
DeAngelo Williams RB Probable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 27
–
PIT 34

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:21 TD PIT (10:21) 34-D.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 04:45 TD DEN (4:45) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep left to 88-D.Thomas for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – PIT 7
  • Q1 03:16 TD DEN (3:16) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – PIT 7
  • Q2 11:36 TD DEN (11:36) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – PIT 7
  • Q2 07:36 FG PIT (7:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. Penalty on DEN-90-A.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-60-G.Warren, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. DEN 20 – PIT 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD DEN (2:00) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 88-D.Thomas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 26 – PIT 10
  • Q2 00:08 FG PIT (:08) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. DEN 27 – PIT 13
  • Q3 07:20 TD PIT (7:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 27 – PIT 19
  • Q4 12:39 TD PIT (12:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 11-M.Wheaton for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 27 – PIT 26
  • Q4 03:29 TD PIT (3:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 27 – PIT 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:49) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to DEN 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders. PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DEN 17.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:25) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to DEN 39, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. Penalty on DEN-90-A.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-60-G.Warren, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:52) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-A.Brown to PIT 44 for 13 yards (36-K.Webster).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 22%

    (11:33) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DEN 14, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 33-S.Keo.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:40) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 22%

    (5:45) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-A.Brown to PIT 28 for 19 yards (85-V.Green). PENALTY on PIT-46-W.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at PIT 6.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:27) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to DEN 29, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-J.Norwood for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DEN, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 33.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 20 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 40 for 10 yards.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to PIT 37, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-48-S.Barrett.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to DEN 16, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-57-T.Garvin.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:36) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to PIT 44, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 28%

    (5:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DEN 11, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 58%

    (2:17) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short left to 22-C.Anderson. Coverage by #50 Shazier.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 45%

    (1:46) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep middle to 10-E.Sanders (22-W.Gay).