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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to DEN 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders. PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DEN 17.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP